By Thapelo Molefe
Higher Education Minister Buti Manamela has officially approved the Ministerial Statement on Student Enrolment Planning for Public Universities for the 2026–2030 academic period, setting out targets for student intake, graduation, and system growth over the next five years.
The plan, which also covers the associated funding cycle through to 2032/33, follows months of consultation between the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) and all 26 public universities.
It represents the culmination of a comprehensive national planning process that included bilateral meetings, a national workshop in November 2024, and the submission of institutionally approved enrolment and graduation plans.
According to the approved targets, total university enrolments are projected to rise from 1.07 million in 2023 to 1.18 million by 2030, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 1.5.
The intake of first-time entering undergraduates is expected to grow by 1.8% per year, alongside steady improvements in graduation rates and postgraduate output.
While welcoming these projections as a milestone for stability and predictability, Manamela warned that the current trajectory may still fall short of meeting the broader National Development Plan (NDP) targets, particularly in key fields such as science, engineering, teacher education, and scarce skills.
“This enrolment plan provides much-needed stability and predictability for our system. But we must also be honest: at the current rate, we are unlikely to meet the full scope of our NDP targets by 2030. This is not a moment to sit back, it is a call to act,” Manamela said in a statement on Monday.
The minister emphasised that the approved enrolment targets are not a final destination but rather a foundation for transformation within the post-school education and training (PSET) system.
“We are committed to a more articulated, integrated and responsive PSET system,” he said.
“This means growing our TVET and Community College enrolments, improving quality and relevance, and expanding digital, work-integrated and occupational training pathways.”
Manamela said that several initiatives are already underway to support this reconfiguration. These include the development of a Skills for Growth Compact with industry and government, a revision of universities’ Programme Qualification Mix (PQM) to better align with national priorities, and strengthened articulation pathways between TVET colleges, community colleges, and universities.
The department is also focused on expanding distance and blended learning opportunities to widen access, and is working with the Department of Basic Education to strengthen mathematics and science performance in schools, boosting the pipeline for STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) disciplines in higher education.
The approved ministerial statement will now be communicated to all public universities, each of which will receive institution-specific targets and guidelines. Universities are expected to confirm their commitments through their councils and integrate the new targets into their annual performance plans.
The DHET will monitor implementation annually and remain open to adjustments based on budget changes, policy developments, and system performance, it said.
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