By Thapelo Molefe
Nearly half of older learners who leave school before completing Grade 12 are affected by financial pressure or barriers to progression, with a lack of money for fees emerging as the single biggest stated reason for non-attendance among 16 to 18-year-olds.
The findings are contained in the Department of Basic Education’s latest analysis of the 2024 General Household Survey (GHS), released in August, which shows that while the country has made progress in keeping children in school, “the drop-out problem in South Africa is mainly among older learners”.
According to the report, 23% of 16 to 18-year-olds who were not attending an educational institution in 2024 said the main reason was a lack of money for fees. A further 12% said they had not been accepted for enrolment.
The report found that the risk of dropping out rises sharply in the later grades.
For the most recent cohort, covering young people born between 1998 and 2000 and surveyed between 2022 and 2024, the grade-specific dropout rate increased from 11.9% after Grade 10 to 20.9% after Grade 11. By comparison, dropout rates remained below 4% from Grades 1 to 6.
The report states that dropout rates are “low in the primary school grades and increase with each grade, peaking after Grade 11”.
This means learners are generally more likely to remain in school during their primary years, but the pressure becomes much greater as they approach the end of secondary school.
It also found that 29.8% of those in the latest cohort who reported completing Grade 11 did not complete any further education and were therefore assumed to have dropped out.
The DBE said, however, that the reasons learners give for not attending school should not automatically be regarded as the underlying causes of dropout.
“The main predictor of dropping out is poor quality early education,” the report states.
It explains that the reasons reported by learners may instead be immediate triggers for leaving school, particularly among those already struggling academically.
The report notes that these factors may not necessarily result in dropout among learners who are progressing well, “especially if they are in a good quality school”.
The findings come against a general improvement in school survival rates. Among young people aged 22 to 26, the proportion completing Grade 12 increased from 38% among those born between 1979 and 1981 to 60.3% among those born between 1998 and 2000.
The report says the improvement in survival rates is particularly evident among younger generations. For the latest cohort, the survival rate was 92.2% by Grade 9, 86.5% by Grade 10 and 76.2% by Grade 11, before falling to 60.3% at Grade 12.
Overall, the number of children aged seven to 18 who were out of school declined from about 435,292 in 2013 to approximately 405,718 in 2024.
Among 16 to 18-year-olds, the number fell from about 325,166, or 11%, in 2013 to approximately 265,723, or 8.6%, in 2024.
The financial pressure on older learners nevertheless stands out in the 2024 findings. This is despite the expansion of the no-fee school policy, which has increased the proportion of public-school learners paying no school fees from about 50% in 2009 to approximately 71% in 2024.
“The main reason (97,5%) given for not paying fees by learners in public schools was that the school did not ask for fees,” the report states.
The increase in no-fee schooling means that the cost of school fees is not affecting all learners in the same way. However, the GHS findings show that money remains a barrier for a significant group of older learners who are already outside the education system.
The proportion of seven to 15-year-olds outside the education system has remained relatively stable at around 1.2%.
Among seven to 15-year-olds, disability was the main reason identified for non-attendance. The report notes, however, that about 87% of learners with disabilities do attend an educational institution.
A smaller group of learners also said they were out of school because they regarded education as having no value.
INSIDE EDUCATION
